The high regard that global meat and livestock industry analyst Simon Quilty is held in by the farming community was evident at the sellout event held in Mansfield last week, where the mood was positive despite the recent challenging dry conditions.
Based in Wangaratta, Mr Quilty—a regular visitor to Mansfield for more than six years—has developed a loyal following through his regular reports, which track movements in beef and sheep markets and the impact of overseas decisions on producers.
The function room at the Delatite Hotel on Wednesday, 30 July, was packed with 100-plus local producers and other farmers travelling from up to two hours away for the dinner with Simon Quilty event Market Outlooks for Cattle and Sheep Producers.
It was also an opportunity for local farmers to catch up with mates and share, with like-minded people, some of their challenges.
This event, a project of the Regional Drought Resilience Planning program, was supported by North East Catchment Management Authority through funding from the Australian Government’s Future Drought Fund and the Victorian Government.
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Mansfield’s Up2Us Landcare Alliance worked with Agridome Consultancy in the organisation of the event.
With increasing awareness of mental health issues in rural areas, Mr Quilty’s talk was preceded by an address by Mansfield Mental Health and Wellbeing Local’s Eve Williams, who provided a brief overview of walk-in free services and resources available locally.
Mr Quilty began the first part of his talk before dinner by announcing that he would “start today talking about records.”
Citing March 2022 as the last time for record prices, he explained why now it is sustainable whereas last time was not.
“COVID was the problem – money everywhere, people spending money left, right and centre, but the stimulus dried up,” said Mr Quilty.
This was a period when doing business was “clunky” and supply chains were difficult.
The third issue, said Mr Quilty, was bottlenecks in the processing sector and lack of workers, which saw prices fall and a market crash.
“Today this is sustainable – start of the journey, not the end,” he said.
Mr Quilty forecasts that the peak for cattle will be October/November next year, and sheep June/July in the same year.
The question on everyone’s mind is what impact American president Donald Trump’s 4 April tariffs have on our major markets.
There are 75 countries with pauses on tariffs, with Australia on 10 per cent.
China has put a 30 per cent tariff on exports to the US.
“Trump’s tariffs are driving prices up in the US, and Australia was getting more demand out of Japan and China,” said Mr Quilty.
He spoke about imports of certain products such as lean beef as essential items in the US post-4 April, and the “end users bearing the cost.”
Mr Quilty also said the higher foreign currency rates had not disadvantaged us.
“Australia has done fine,” he said.
“Australian cattle prices firmed after the first two weeks after 4 April, and sheep prices rose by 30 per cent.”
Key things to note: “US beef exports to China halted” when Trump’s first term phase one five-year agreement licence (2016–20) did not auto-renew, said Mr Quilty.
“At the end of March almost no one could export to China.
“Demand for Australian grain-fed beef is exceptional in China thanks to Donald Trump,” Mr Quilty said.
“A tariff problem that has worked in our favour… China needs our products.”
While that was the good news, the impact of the seasons was the other concern for many of the producers in the room.
“Rainfall in southern Australia was on the improve; previous week, good rains in parts of NSW and South Australia, while parts of Queensland and Western Australia looked pretty good,” said Mr Quilty.
Parts of western Victoria and Gippsland are still dry, but some of the weather modelling was pointing to more rain and the possibility of good conditions ahead, he said.
“We need the market to rebuild.
“It is a tale of two regions – the wet north and the dry south – the south was truly devastated,” Mr Quilty said.
This has led to a large female kill rate ratio for beef and sheep, as producers were liquidating to manage their cash flow.
Comparing the two regions, Mr Quilty believed there would be an aggressive rebuild in the south and a mild one in the north.
There were several scenarios presented throughout the talk, but there was optimism that demand for Australian meat would continue and fill the void.
High-quality beef was popular with millennials in the US, who wanted a restaurant experience in their own home—especially post-COVID—and were willing to pay a premium for it, Mr Quilty said.
He was confident that beef would remain strong in the US retail market, while chicken remained the dominant choice in the takeaway food sector.
In looking at the bottom line: “Demand-driven market is about to begin, which will see Angus feeder steer prices lead pricing across all categories,” said Mr Quilty.
In conclusion, he noted improvement in global demand as Australia backfills.
“Australia’s southern cattle and sheep supply will tighten significantly, but north less so.”
Up2Us Landcare’s Rhiannon Quigley was thrilled with the turn-out for the evening event.
“After a tough season, it was great to come together, share a meal, and hear some much-needed optimism,” Ms Quigley said.
“Simon Quilty provided timely and practical insights into the livestock market, which really resonated with our attendees.
“One landholder even said the information gave them the confidence to consider rebuilding their herd sooner than expected.
“With so many farmers having had to make the difficult decision to destock, it was uplifting to hear some positives and reconnect as a community.
“This event highlighted the strength and resilience of our local farming community.
“It was encouraging to see people leaving with renewed hope and a better understanding of what’s ahead.”
