Victoria’s property markets have been through the wringer in the last few years.

After the boom of 2024-25, people are now asking: Are we finally in a buyer’s market?

What we’re seeing in Victoria's market now is no surge or peak, at least not yet, but it’s set up. The inventory is building while rates are the same, and activity is gradually increasing as we move towards May and June, which is typically when things peak.

 If you’re a buyer, this may be one of the best windows we’ve seen in a while to explore your options without pressure.

Melbourne’s Cooling Market

The median price of houses in Melbourne has softened recently, giving buyers more bargaining strength than they've had for years. It's now difficult to sell a house at the asking price. Most recent data for the property market in Melbourne show that almost three out of four homes sell below the price sellers hoped to get for their properties.

The market is still patchy. The premium inner-ring suburbs are seeing noticeable price corrections, while more affordable outer corridors like Frankston and Sunbury are still seeing annual growth. This patchiness shows that some areas are buyer-friendly, while others are still very competitive, making it important to understand local trends before buying a property. 

Victoria’s Recent Real Estate Trends 

Victoria’s real estate data from March 2026 shows an increase in the number of properties available for purchase, leading to lower purchase prices.

  • The recorded number of properties sold rose to 597, which is fairly higher than in February. It shows that positive energy is gradually spreading throughout Victoria's buyer community.

  • The recent sales are still 5.5 % lower than March of last year, but the market is steady, just not red-hot.

  • Active listings rose this March to 3,261, up 12 % from February and 8 % from last year. This sweet surge is actually why buyers have a wider choice and more leverage to negotiate better pricing.

  • The situation is hard for condos. Sales go down around 19% year over year. The median price of $540k indicates that purchasers are sensitive to price, now bidding their time just waiting for an opportune shot.

  • Townhouse prices are stable, though sales are slower. In March, the median price was $775k.

  • Single-family homes are the strongest segment, with 285 homes sold in March at a median price of $1.185 million. 

All this still doesn’t mean the buyer’s market is cheap, though. It just means that buyers finally have the leverage. They can take their time to explore, compare, negotiate for better prices, and can ask for a ‘subject to building inspection’ clause without being laughed at, which was almost impossible during the 2024-2025 boom.   

Regional Market Dynamics

When you step outside Melbourne, the property market is very different. The townships like Warrnambool are still the territory of sellers. It’s because, unlike the rest of Victoria, the demand in these areas is influenced by a lot of factors, including:

  • Local buyers

  • Lifestyle seekers

  • Coastal living enthusiasts

  • Weekend getaway investors

Due to local tourism and regional growth, the competition is even harder, making the property market move fast. 

But places like these have not seen the same price adjustments as in premium Melbourne suburbs. Some places sell homes quickly, so you have to move fast if you want to get your hands on a good one.  This contrast shows why the trend about a buyer’s market state-wide can be misleading. It’s clear that regional dynamics often do not follow the pattern of urban areas.

Influencing Factors & Government Initiatives

Several factors are affecting the current Victorian market. Economic factors such as interest rates, inflation, and nationwide trends are among the main factors that impact buyer and seller behaviour.

Government policy is also making waves in the real estate market. The Victorian government’s reforms of April 2026, especially the ’More Homes’ initiative, are aimed at bringing more people into the market. Stamp duty discounts prevent the new properties from being so stratospherically costly as in the past few years. 

Meanwhile, incentives for planning and development aim to speed up the delivery of new houses/condos to meet demand in both the countryside and cities. For Melbourne buyers, in particular, these incentives make off-the-plan properties more attractive than resale homes. 

Buyer Opportunities, Risks and Due Diligence

Even when Melbourne properties are cheaper now, don’t fall into the trap of buying a lemon. As a buyer, you need to be very careful, especially when buying a home in a regional town. A property may look great on the outside, but become a nightmare later. Professional property inspections in Warrnambool or Melbourne are the only way to ensure that a ‘good deal’ doesn't have a $50,000 termite problem hiding in the walls. Before signing any papers, it is necessary to have your property thoroughly checked, so that you do not find yourself with a big headache later.

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Victoria's current housing market is hard to classify as either a buyer or a seller market. While it’s easy to see that buyers now rule the roost in inner Melbourne, regional markets tend to lean a lot more in favour of sellers. However, if you follow things like local trends, Government incentives and the importance of property inspections, you can do quite well both in buyer and seller markets with marginal risk.