Despite not being officially declared a drought area, the Mansfield district has recorded significantly below-average rainfall over the past three months.

To the end of March, just 152.4mm of rain had fallen, according to Mansfield Post Office records.

In contrast, nearby Mt Buller — only a few kilometres away but at a higher altitude — recorded 353.2mm over the same period.

The dry conditions in Mansfield differ from much of the rest of Australia, where rainfall has generally been average or above average.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, rainfall deficiencies over the 14-month period since January 2025 have eased in parts of central inland Australia, while longer-term deficiencies over 24 months have contracted in areas of South Australia.

However, the broader trend remains concerning.

Southern Australia has recorded below-average April to October rainfall in 26 of the 32 years from 1994 to 2025, while streamflow has also been lower than average across many sites in southern and south-eastern Australia.

Locally, January recorded just 1.4mm of rain.

Conditions improved in February, with 82.6mm recorded, followed by 68.4mm in March.

Farmers across the district will now be looking for follow-up rain as spring crops begin to be sown from late April through May.

Water storage levels have also declined across eastern and southern Australia, with some storages down by as much as 50 per cent compared to this time last year.

As of last week, Lake Eildon was sitting at 42.5 per cent capacity — or 18.56 metres below full supply.

Across Victoria, February rainfall was below to very much below average — in the lowest 10 per cent of all Februarys since 1900 in some areas.

Over the 36 months to February 2026, rainfall has also been below to very much below average across much of the state.

The State of the Climate 2024 report noted an ongoing shift towards drier conditions across southern Australia.

The Bureau attributes the decline in cool-season rainfall to rising surface pressure and changes in large-scale weather patterns, including more high-pressure systems and fewer rain-producing lows and cold fronts.

Looking ahead, the Bureau’s long-range forecast, released on 5 March 2026 for April to June, indicates rainfall is likely to be below average for most of Australia.

Daytime temperatures are very likely to be above average across most of the country.

Overnight temperatures are likely to be above average across much of the eastern and southern coasts, with no clear signal elsewhere.

In a rare break from the recent trend, light snow fell across Mt Buller and the high country in March.

Staff at mountain resorts welcomed the unexpected dusting, with the ski season now just eight weeks away.