The state government has ignited a firestorm in Mansfield Shire after mandating a target of 3900 new homes by 2051, a top-down decree that local leaders and community members have slammed as "unrealistic" and a blatant attempt to silence local voices.

The announcement requires Mansfield Shire Council to plan for the almost 4000 additional dwellings, placing an enormous burden on the region's already strained infrastructure and core services.

The news lands less than a month before more yet to be revealed planning reforms are expected to be rushed through parliament, fueling fears that local planning power is being systematically dismantled.

Mayor Cr Steve Rabie called the housing target yet another example of the state government making major decisions about the shire’s future "without any genuine consultation with the local community or with local government".

The council is not inherently opposed to growth, especially given Mansfield's status as one of the fastest-growing municipalities in the state.

The shire's population growth rate has sat at around two per cent per annum since 2001 making it one of the top five local government areas for internal migration growth in Victoria.

Population forecasts predict the shire's resident numbers will swell from an estimated 10,782 in June 2024 to around 18,400 by 2051 if the current annual growth rate sustains.

What's more the average household size in the shire is 2.26 people, which would make a target of 3900 new homes not necessarily excessive as it is aligns with the consistent growth rate.

The shire has been proactive in opening up land for development, having already approved a significant number of home sites over the last few years with a figure sitting around 800 mentioned.

Land has also been earmarked in the Merrijig draft plan for increased housing which is currently up for community consultation, along with locations like Bonnie Doon recognised for their potential.

The issue therefore is not the goal of planning for these 3900 homes—which the shire believes it is already capable of meeting the land requirement for— but the erosion of local control and the lack of consultation.

For Cr Rabie, the affront lies in the process along with the glaring lack of essential support.

"Council is not opposed to growth, but it has to be the right kind of growth, planned in partnership with the community," Cr Rabie said

"This target has been dropped on us without any discussion about whether it’s realistic or what it will take to get there."

He reiterated that the core concern for Mansfield Shire is that the state government is mandating growth without a matching commitment to fund the critical infrastructure required to support it.

The burden of thousands of new residents—and the demand for more roads, healthcare, schools, and sporting facilities—is being shifted entirely onto the local council.

"Where are we going to put an additional 3900 houses?," the Mayor said.

"We have to plan for it, in the long term.

"The state government is mandating these targets but they are not providing the funding for the services and infrastructure that must come with more homes."

Mansfield Shire is already grappling with the strain on existing services.

"Look at the condition of the state’s roads already.

"You can’t just add thousands of new houses to a rural shire and expect our existing roads and services to cope.

"It’s unsustainable and it shows a complete lack of understanding of the challenges we face in rural Victoria.

"We are being set up to fail."

The local government's fear is that the state's move is a political "tick the box" exercise that cost-shifts the housing crisis onto smaller, less-resourced local councils.

The problem boils down to the fact that "opening up land doesn’t make houses" with the shire currently averaging between 80 and 120 new builds per annum, a number that falls short of mandated targets.

Adding to the outrage is the looming prospect of a new bill heading to Parliament in October, which promises major changes to the planning system that have yet to be disclosed.

This lack of transparency has caused deep unease among residents who fear the loss of the town's unique character.

Concerned community member Sarah Stegley echoed the Mayor's frustration, highlighting the deep-seated worry in the community.

"These secretive planning changes are causing genuine anxiety within our community," Ms Stegley said.

"There's a strong feeling that these top-down reforms are not in our favour and will ultimately handicap our ability to protect what makes Mansfield a special country town."

The fear is that reforms will fundamentally affect residents' rights, potentially allowing the Minister for Housing to approve planning amendments with reduced scrutiny, effectively removing local, expert, and subjective review.

"The state government has shown that its reforms are centred on Melbourne's needs, not the reality of rural Victoria," Ms Stegley continued.

"Pushing through blanket reforms shows a misunderstanding of what it takes to protect the unique character of a country town."

Cr Rabie reinforced this commitment to local amenity.

"We all live here because we love it the way it is now," he said.

"Council is committed to keeping it country and making sure we maintain our country character.

"That gets harder and harder when we have the controls we need to make that happen taken away from us."

The local pushback against the "one-size-fits-all" approach is also strongly supported by the wider housing industry.

Speaking at the Housing Industry Association's Regional Housing Roundtable in Bendigo, HIA Chief Executive of Industry and Policy Simon Croft emphasised the urgent need for a targeted approach.

"Housing policies need to deliver for regional Australia and not just be an adjunct of inner-city policies set in Melbourne, Sydney and Canberra,” said Mr Croft, citing the growing trend of city dwellers moving to regions—now totalling 8.5 million people living in regional Australia.

Mr Croft noted that regions “can offer the lifestyle they want and the jobs they’re after, minus big city problems - like long commute times, tolls and traffic".

However, he highlighted the importance of appropriate investment in the regions to bolster services, skills and infrastructure needed to support this growing population.

The HIA's data also indicates a crisis in housing delivery, with Victorian house building hitting a new low.

According to the data, Victoria has registered the weakest quarter for the state in almost 12 years.

This is a clear indication that simply mandating targets won't translate into houses without addressing systemic issues.

Mr Croft identified three major obstacles to housing delivery with access to shovel-ready land, insufficient investment in necessary enabling infrastructure for new housing estates, and worker shortages across the construction sector and in regional council planning departments, all contributing to the crisis.

In addition the State Government's new Windfall Gains Tax is viewed as another underhanded revenue-raiser which will further hinder development.

The WGT levies a 50 per cent tax on the uplift in land value when agricultural land is rezoned for residential use, payable even if the land isn't sold.

This tax is expected to make landowners reluctant to agree to rezoning and reduce developer profit, potentially rendering housing projects unviable.

In response to perceived state government overreach, Mansfield Shire Council is actively mounting a public campaign and has successfully advocated for five key principles to maintain the inherent character of regional communitues to be adopted by the Municipal Association of Victoria (MAV), demonstrating strong state-wide support for their stance.

The Mayor is now urging the community to take a stand against the secretive and top-down planning practices before it is too late.

"At every step of the way, the state government have been making it impossible for local governments to consider community concerns and have local planning power where it matters most," Cr Rabie said.

"This is not a done deal.

"If you are also concerned that the state government is ignoring the needs of our community, the most powerful thing you can do is let them know directly.

"Write to your local member and tell them you want local planning powers to stay in the hands of local people."