Mansfield is facing a looming dry deadline as State Government mandated growth targets collide with a shrinking water supply and a changing climate. Mansfield’s potable water is supplied from the Delatite River with off-stream storage at Richies Reservoirs providing security of supply during low flow periods. However, as the hot dry summer continues water security in the shire is at the forefront, with Goulburn Valley Water predicting the potential for stage two water restrictions based on minimum inflow outlooks and storage volumes as likely. With a directive to accommodate nearly 4000 new homes by 2051, concerns have been raised by community members and council alike that the shire’s current infrastructure - which is already stretched - is ill-equipped to handle the influx without significant state investment. According to projections from the region’s water authority Goulburn Valley Water (GVW) the region can no longer rely solely on surface water, with Mansfield just 16 years from a shortfall in drinking water under a high demand scenario. Even when the high demand scenario is downgraded to medium, demand will still exceed the Delatite River System’s current entitlement by 2050 based on the evaluation of long-term water requirement and supply options. Inflows to upstream storages have plummeted over the last 30 to 40 years, yet the State Government’s mandate will see thousands of new residents call Mansfield home by 2050. GVW currently holds a Bulk Entitlement for the Delatite River, allowing the extraction of up to 2,600 megalitres (ML) of water over any two consecutive years. While this serves the town today, GVW’s Urban Water Strategy 2022 acknowledges that a "warming and drying trend" will lead to significant reductions in streamflow over the next 50 years. In addition since the release of the strategy, demand locally has trended towards high, and while this is likely influenced by dry climatic conditions over the last year, it does not bode well for unbalanced population growth. Mayor Cr Steve Rabie has slammed the lack of communication between Spring Street and the High Country, suggesting growth targets were set without checking if the taps would actually run. "The State Government has demanded thousands of new homes by 2050 with seemingly no consideration of the infrastructure required to service them," Cr Rabie said. "This is what happens when legislation is pushed through without consultation with councils and communities." The mayor warned that without a "marked increase" in investment, the strain would be felt across all essential services, from hospitals and schools to the roads we drive on and the very water in the pipes. “The mandated growth targets from the state government make it very difficult for communities like Mansfield Shire to commit to sustainable, organic growth,” he said. In response to significant growth in Mansfield, GVW have identified permanent and long-term options in a bid to ensure the sustainability and reliability of supply in the Delatite River System. The Planning and Climate Resilience Manager for GVW said the 50-year forecast takes into consideration bulk water supply and demand, as well as wastewater volumes, while considering factors such as population growth, climate change and variability. “We continuously monitor, plan for, and respond to population growth and climate change in Mansfield and the surrounding area,” the manager said. “This ongoing process includes engaging with local council to ensure that growth forecasts used by GVW align with local and state planning initiatives.” Looking to these forecasts, the Mansfield Water Treatment Plant along with the water supply pipeline from the Delatite River to the treatment plant have all been earmarked for upgrades, with the construction of additional raw water storage also scheduled for within the next decade. To offset demand, GVW has also begun rolling out "purple pipe" initiatives. A recycled water standpipe was constructed in 2023 provided Class B recycled and treated water for dust suppression and irrigation, saving precious drinking water for Mansfield households. “The Mansfield water catchment is highly dependent on rainfall, which is being impacted by the changing climate,” GVW Managing Director Dr Steve Capewell said. “Finding new ways to use recycled wastewater will also help with long-term management of sustainable water sources and improve water security for the region.” Mansfield Shire Council have also developed an Integrated Water Management Plan, applying Water Sensitive Urban Design principles to planning permits that are issued. With water security an issue that many regional communities are facing, the Victorian Government has confirmed $24 million in integrated water management grants. Whether Mansfield will see a sufficient slice of that pie to "drought-proof" the town is yet to be seen, despite the GVW remaining cautious about the water outlook for the Mansfield township in the immediate and long-term future. Permanent water-saving rules—in place since 2011—are no longer enough, with longer term water supply options including sourcing water from Lake Eildon and mandate-driven rainwater harvesting for all new builds on the table. Until then, the message from the shire is clear if Mansfield is mandated to grow the State Government needs to turn on the funding tap. And perhaps more importantly, it needs to rain.
